Updated: Tuesday afternoon, May 25th (Local Time)
Fun-size SW swell over the weekend of the 29th-30th and into the 31st
Larger, long lasting SW swell the 1st through the 4th; likely strongest the 2nd-3rd
Fading, but fun and still very rippable surf over the weekend of the 5th-6th
The South Pacific has been quite active over the last month and that is a trend that will continue for at least the next few days. We expect to see fun surf to kick off the event window over the weekend of the 29th-30th, with a larger and long lasting, long period SW swell for the final several days of the event, which should set up well overhead surf when it peaks.
Our first SW swell (230-220) will build at the end of the week, should peak on Saturday the 29th and hold to slowly fade on Sunday the 30th. This is from a recent storm near New Zealand that was rather compact but took a favorable track toward El Salvador and was fairly strong (peak satellite-verified seas were in the 30-35’ range). The long travel distance will limit size and consistency somewhat but lully surf in the shoulder high to slightly overhead range (4-6’ faces) is expected over the weekend for La Bocana and Sunzal.
One thing to note – there is at least a chance that some shorter period SSW swell will join the mix around Sunday from a tropical low that may form to the south of Oaxaca Friday-Saturday. We’re lower confidence on any details right now – and it doesn’t look like it will be a significant swell – but it may add some jumble/peakiness to the surf later in the weekend. La Bocana would fare better on this type of swell mix if it does materialize. Stay tuned.
The source of our next swell is just starting to pull together in the central South Pacific now and should be a large, long duration storm over the next few days. This will be a larger, stronger and closer storm than the above discussed New Zealand storm and we expect larger and more consistent surf from it. This should be a drawn out event with multiple pulses, although it will likely feel like one long swell.
Assuming the storm/fetch behaves close to current model guidance, we should start to see very long period forerunners slowly build on Monday the 31st, mixing in with the leftovers from the weekend swell. A more noticeable build should occur through Tuesday with peak in surf Wed/Thu before easing gradually on Friday. During the swell peak we should see surf in the overhead to well overhead range, with the larger sets up to double overhead. At this size Sunzal should offer the better quality surf, with La Bocana likely maxing out. The weekend of the 5th-6th will likely see decreasing surf but potentially still in the head high to overhead range on Saturday the 5th and shoulder-head high on Sunday the 6th. Stay tuned, we’ll be able to refine the details over the next few days as we see the storm develop and gather data on it.
There are no red flags for wind at this point and it looks like we’ll be in a fairly typical pattern for most/all of the event. That would mean light and generally favorable wind in the early to mid mornings trending onshore from the later mornings through the afternoon for some bump. Some evenings may see a clean up. As we get a little closer we’ll be able to dial in the daily details.
Next Update: By Thursday Evening, May 27th